So it's that time of year again. Time to turn the collective attention of the film industry to the stage of the Kodak theater in Hollywood for a night of awards. Only these aren't just any awards, given out by some group of film critics or an association of foreign journalists. No, these are the Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, given out by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts & Sciences. Simply put, it's the most prestigious award you can earn working in Hollywood, and every year the story behind the Oscars is almost as fascinating as the awards themselves. Like a page from a film noir script, each year sees shady politics and backroom deals (or so the losers claim) influence the voting of Academy members. Some years, the Oscars are incredibly hard to predict. Other years, everyone seems to know whose name will be called from the podium before the envelope is even opened. I've met people who love the awards and the organization which hosts them, and others who turn up their noses and sneer at what they consider a rigged popularity contest. Call me a romantic idealist (and if I truly am, then frankly I probably have no business working in Hollywood), but I tend to fall into the category that actually enjoys the Oscars. I know not every campaign is clean, and not every award is given to those who truly deserve it, but I tend to turn a blind (or ignorant) eye to much of the distasteful proceedings and instead try to focus on the celebration of artistic excellence that I feel the spirit of the Oscars should embody. So with that in mind, let's take a look at this years nominees and try to navigate the field of options to determine who derserves to stand atop the stage on Sunday night, March 7th.
Best Picture
First, this year features a decidedly different Best Picture race. Instead of the usual 5 nominees, this year the ballot was expanded to include 10 nominees, giving voters twice as many options for which film ought to be crowned Best Picture of the year. Partly a throwback to the history of the Oscars (at this years ceremonies, they're celebrating the 70th anniversary of 1939 - "Hollywood's Greatest Year" which included 10 best picture nominees), partly a ploy to draw a larger TV audience, the decision to nominate 10 films has met with some confusion and resistance. Many have argued that while 1939 may have been Hollywood's Greatest Year - a year which produced such greats as Gone With the Wind, The Wizard of Oz, and Stagecoach among others, you can hardly make that claim for 2009 (the calendar year in film that's being awarded in this 2010 ceremony). Many critics even scoffed that finding 10 films that could be considered "Best Picture" material would be an impossible task. I'll have a seperate blog post in the coming days ahead to highlight what I personally thought were the top 20 films of 2009, but for now, let's just look at those which the Academy has chosen to recognize. The 10 nominees for Best Picture are: The Hurt Locker, Avatar, Inglourious Basterds, Precious, Up in the Air, District 9, A Serious Man, Up, An Education, & The Blind Side.
Upon closer review, the first 5 films in that list also nabbed the 5 slots for Best Director nominations, meaning that essentially, we have a two-tiered best picture field. 5 of the films nominated aren't really realistic threats to win the big award itself, they're simply there to gratefully accept their nomination, draw a TV audience, and create discussion. Examining those first, we have District 9, a very creative science fiction film probably nominated for it's surprising performance at the box office and winning combination of substantial story + special effects (a lesson Avatar never learn). It's chances of being crowned top film are slim, but it should excite fans of the sci-fi genre and get a lot of fan boys to tune in for the awards broadcast. A Serious Man is a Coen brothers film, and their unique blend of translating worldviews visually through storytelling as well as their sharp mind for dialogue and characters is to be greatly admired, even if the worldview in question is one I find utterly bankrupt (indeed, I found this film to be one of the most "post-viewing-discussion-inducing" experiences of the year, and it is not one for the casual viewer to ponder). As good as it is though, it may have been too cerebral for voters to really embrace, and plus the Coens have won recently for their dark American dystopian masterwork No Country For Old Men. Up may be quite frankly the best picture of the year, I personally thought so and found it to be one of the most emotionally moving films ever committed to the screen usuing the storytelling tool of animation, but sadly the animation bias will work against it and it will be relegated to it's own category of Best Animated Feature which it should sweep with little competition from other nominees. An Education, while full of terrific acting performnces spearheaded by English newcomer Carey Mulligan, is essentially ushered into the fold of 10 films simply for that reason: because it was an acting showcase; and besides, there are much better films in contention for it to seriously be considered for the win. And as much as I loved The Blind Side and it's terrific message, it's chances to win Best Picture are slim. I have a hunch that as much as I hate to admit it, the film was nominated as a strategic move to get those areas of the country Hollywood shuns - the red states, the deep south, the "flyover states", the heartland... all those places that fully embraced the values and story of The Blind Side and made it into the suprise box office hit that it became - to simply tune in to the broadcast and give them a horse to root for. It's not a bad film at all, but it's simply not a film that Hollywood will ever allow to win Best Picture in this field of 10.
So who are the real contenders for Best Picture? Those would be the top 5 films mentioned in the above lineup, and I believe in that order too. All five of these films got their directors nominated as well, in a year of only 5 Best Picture nominees, these would have been the ones. Working backwards from number 5, we have Up In the Air, the latest effort from writer/director Jason Reitman. While showing a lot of potential, I think the Academy will let Reitman simmer for a few more years before they award him a Best Picture Oscar, although he has made arguably his best film to date here, and quite possibly the most timely film to be released amidst the economic turbulence of 2009. In fact, it could be that this was both the films greatest strength and greatest weakness. It resonated so well with it's depiction of today's headlines, but it also made it a rather unsettling film that hit too close to home for some, and humor notwithstanding, it's charms couldn't help it escape the fact that this story and material was a bit too real and not entertaining enough for some viewers. Its tough to enjoy a film about being let go when many filmgoers had experienced just that within the past year. Next up is Precious, a film I personally found next to zero entertainment value in, and for all the talk of hope and joy and redemption, I left the theater feeling like I just paid money to be domestically violated. I know some of that was probably director Lee Daniels intention, but I left the film more than a bit disturbed. It did get the editing nomination that Up in the Air did not, so it lands slightly ahead of the curve on it's best picture chances (Insider tip: almost all the true Best Picture contenders get a editing nomination... check the records), but I don't think it really will win the big one. At spot number 3 by my count, we have Quentin Tarrentino's Inglourious Basterds, a film which is arguably his best work since Pulp Fiction if not even better. I'm one of those people who consider Tarrentino to be incredibly overrated, but even I enjoyed Basterds. It's his most mature film to date from a dramatic and thematic point of view, and the production values are excellent with crisp art direction, amazing acting, and tense moments of visual storytelling that almost echo some of Hitchcock's earlier work. It's the film Tarrentino has been wanting to make for years, and boy did he nail it here! I consider this a huge dark horse to actually win the prize because of the voting rules this year. Due to a tiered voting system, you can vote for more than one film, but you have to indicate on the ballot your number one choice, number two choice, etc. Theoretically, if two films like The Hurt Locker and Avatar split first place votes, and a film like Inglourious Basterds gets enough second and third place votes, it could pull into the lead and land atop the podium Sunday night. Also worth noting is that the actors branch, which comprises the largest voting branch of the Academy, awarded their version of Best Picture, the Best Ensemble Cast award at the SAG (Screen Actors Guild) Awards, to Inglourious Basterds, beating out the current favorite, The Hurt Locker. Therefore, it's not entirely safe to assume we won't see Basterds win it all on Sunday, especially if the actors branch gets behind it.
Finally we have the big two, Avatar and The Hurt Locker. By now you've no doubt heard the David vs. Goliath comparisons, and they are incredibly accurate. We're talking about the number one film of all time, a sci-fi fantasy epic grossing 700 million and counting, featuring the most advanced visual effects ever committed to celluloid, going head to head against the least successful nominee at the box office, a little film about bomb squads (proper term is EOD) in Iraq that barely made 12 million dollars, but like it's explosions, it has created a lot of attention for such a small film. Avatar is carried on the vision and genius of James Cameron from an idea he developed, yet has been speared by discerning viewers and critics for it's lack of original story and engaging script, resulting in a question over whether or not such a technical feat should be awarded any of the larger awards outside of those visual effects categories it should effortlessly sweep. The Hurt Locker is carried on the slender shoulders of Kathryn Bigelow, the first female director to have a legit shot at shattering the glass ceiling on what has up until now been an exclusive boys club , and win both best director and best picture for her efforts. Her film is carried on the backs of a relatively unknown cast as well, and tackles a subject that has been avoided like the plague for most filmgoers: it's an Iraq war film, a factor that no doubt led to it's small box office gross (that and a horrible summer release amidst large tent-pole blockbusters). After watching the different guilds and organizations chime in, I think it's one of the closest races we've seen in years, but I truly believe The Hurt Locker will win. Not only do I personally like this film above the other, but from a filmmaking perspective it is a better film. Avatar is unquestionable the most visually enthralling film ever made, but all the fancy visuals in all the world can't make up for a bad script with a heavy-handed, almost preachy message that sounds too much like Al Gore's linear notes. As one of my friends so delicately phrased it, "the theme and message of the film clobbers you to death. It's like James Cameron is pinning you to the ground and yelling at you to buy a Prius, boycott capitalism, and be afraid of the military." Cameron is a fantastic visionary director, but let's face it, he still hasn't mastered storytelling. I've heard too many comparisons to Dances with Wolves, Pocahontas, and FernGully. Box office success doesn't mean the film is good (hello Transformers 2), and quite frankly, when you're charging $15 a ticket to see the film in IMAX 3D, then yes, of course you're going to make more money selling fewer tickets and therefore gross a figure that makes your film appear bigger than it is. I didn't feel any emotional connection to the story, when a character died, I felt nothing because those characters had not been developed (Unlike Up, where I had tears in my eyes before the first ten minutes of the film had passed). Heck, I didn't even know the name of the Blue Na'vi Girl (Neytiri) until about halfway through the film. Avatar should sweep the technical categories, it does deserve those. The flying sequences in 3D were breathtaking. But it doesn't deserve either of the Best Director or Best Picture statuettes. That's my opinion anyway, take it for what it's worth.
The Hurt Locker is simply put the best crafted film of 2009. The suspense, the story, and the drama is all palpable in this tense wartime thriller, but the lens is also focused inward to give us a rather intimate look at the lives of 2 or 3 of these soldiers up close. The script by Mark Boal (who also wrote the heartbreaking In The Valley of Elah) is excellent, even though it has within the past few days come under intense scrutiny from some real life soldiers and veterans as being contrived and inaccurate. Not to burst anyone's bubble, but let's think about those criticisms. First off, every filmmaker takes some cinematic license to make their film more engrossing. Elements are added and manipulated to achieve the desired emotional effect. Whether or not you have a problem with this is a matter of personal taste, but frankly, if you want the most accurate film with no drama added in, go watch a security camera at a 7-11 for a couple of hours. It's boring people. Also, The Hurt Locker came out in August, and was released on DVD back in January. So I ask, why are those opposed to the film choosing to raise their voices now? Well, because it's one week to the awards and James Cameron is probably paying them off. Haha, OK, maybe not, but you get the idea. It smacks too much like a political campaign of smear tactics right before an election is held to be taken seriously. As for the claims that the film's protagonist is too reckless, that's kinda the point. From the opening quote that war is a drug to the comments made by his squad leader about his wild adrenaline charged addiction to diffusing bombs, the film answers it's own criticism, and we see SSG James (played brilliantly by Jeremy Renner) struggle with his own actions and decisions throughout the film. Ultimately, the film ends on a positive note, acknowledging that while his methods may be unorthodox, there is a necessity for men like SSG James in the armed services, they do best what nobody else is willing to do and ultimately, they do it to save lives and serve the country. You can feel free to disagree, but that's the way I interpreted the ending, making it one of the only watchable Iraq war films because it steers clear of the politics (for the most part) and focuses on the soldier.
So to sum it up, I predict The Hurt Locker will win Best Picture.
Continuing on to other categories, I shall be a great deal more brief in my thoughts and give my picks, in many ways this is an easy year to predict, but we'll just have to see what happens when the envelopes are opened on awards night.
Best Director
It's Kathryn Bigelow's to lose. Her film is the frontrunner to win Best Picture, and she's the first female to ever win the DGA (Directors Guild Award) and Critics Choice award. Tarrantino is actually my second pick, with Cameron hot on his heels. Jason Reitman and Lee Daniels don't stand a chance against these top three, but they're both very good directors in their own right. Kinda surprised to see Clint Eastwood get snubbed here for Invictus, he's usually Oscar's golden boy. While I mention it, I was surprised to see Invictus get snubbed for Best Picture too considering they had ten spots to give out this year. Hmm, oh well, maybe they've had enough Clint for a few years. Prediction: Kathryn Bigelow for The Hurt Locker
Lead Actor
I've not seen Colin Firth in A Single Man yet, yet because he was the films sole nomination, it's probably safe to say he won't win. I think Jeff Bridges has this one in the bag too for his portrayal of a drunken country music has-been named Bad Blake in Crazy Heart. Clooney gave one of his best performances in Up in the Air, I think it was better than his work in Michael Clayton. Morgan Freeman nailed his Nelson Mandela performance in Invictus, and he's always been a favorite of mine for years, but sadly I think the lack of support for the film in other categories doesn't bode well for his chances to win. And while I've already mentioned Jeremy Renner's turn in The Hurt Locker, I think with more established actors like Jeff Bridges and company above him that haven't yet won in their storied careers, we're looking at a few more years and performances before Renner has a real shot at it. The SAG award confirms my Prediction: Jeff Bridges for Crazy Heart
Lead Actress
Sandra Bullock has never won a Best Actress Oscar before. It's her time. The support for her from the Golden Globes, the SAG Awards, and The Blind Side's scoring of a Best Picture Nomination have this one virtually locked up for her. The only threat is Meryl Streep. Seriously, I don't know why they even bother to have 5 nomination slots in years when Meryl works. They should just say it's gonna be Meryl plus 4 others, she literally always gets a nomination, and has won twice (one for supporting actress in 1979's Kramer vs. Kramer, and one for lead actress in 1982's Sophie's Choice) Not including those two wins, she's been nominated 14 times, a record, and yet hasn't won since that '82 performance. Her turn as Julia Child in Julie & Julia was well received, and yet I still think households everywhere want to see Bullock win for her work in The Blind Side. The other three nominees gave great performances, but have too much ground to make up. Carey Mulligan for An Education has a few more years to fully develop into a serious threat, Gabourey Sidibe was the best thing about Precious, but doesn't have a chance against Bullock and Streep, and Helen Mirren already won recently for The Queen, which was a better performance than her work in The Last Station. I think Emily Blunt got seriously snubbed for her performance in The Young Victoria, I'd rather have her on the ballot than Mirren. Prediction: Sandra Bullock for The Blind Side
Supporting Actor
Expect to see Christoph Waltz simple waltz away with this one. A virtual unknown, he ignited the screen as Hans Linda of the SS in Inglourious Basterds, and held his own opposite bigger, more famous actors. This category has a habit of upsetting though in favor of rewarding veterans, which works well for both Christopher Plummer and Stanley Tucci - both first time nominees after years of steady work. Plummer has the longer and greater resume, and his portrayal of Tolstoy in The Last Station carried the film. Unfortunately, his buzz was pretty quiet even up until nomination day, and the film hasn't been nearly as popular or widely seen as Basterds, Waltz is far ahead of him. Tucci is a fine actor, but his turn as the killer in The Lovely Bones underperformed at the box office, and I don't expect to see him win either. I haven't seen Woody Harrelson in The Messenger, and Matt Damon was great in Invictus, but not great enough to eclipse Christoph. Prediction: Christoph Waltz for Inglourious Basterds
Supporting Actress
As much as I didn't care for Precious as a whole, it looks like Mo'Nique will win this one playing the worst mother on the planet. It was a turn from her that most audiences and critics never expected, so in many ways she rightly deserves the recognition, I just wish it was for a role that wasn't as absolutely repulsing as this one, but that's my opinion speaking. I liked Anna Kendrick best out of this bunch for her role in Up in the Air, but she'll probably split votes with Vera Farmiga. Maggie Gyllenhaal gave a surprisingly good performance in Crazy Heart, but that film is all about Jeff Bridges and the music. And Penelope Cruz won last year, plus Nine bombed, I only know 2 people who even bothered to see it and neither had great things to say. The SAG awards and Golden Globes confirms my Prediction: Mo'Nique for Precious
Original Screenplay & Adapted Screenplay
These categories are chock full of great options: The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, A Serious Man, The Messenger, and Up for Original; and Up in the Air, An Education, Precious, District 9, and In The Loop for Adapted. I really liked the script for In The Loop, was glad to see it get noticed, and I thouhgt both District 9 and Up were great, but I also think based on what the WGA (Writer's Guild of America) has awarded already, we're looking at the following Predictions: Mark Boal for The Hurt Locker for Original Screenplay and Jason Reitman & Sheldon Turner for Up In The Air for Adapted Screenplay
Animated Feature
This year saw 5 nominees in a category that usually only has 3, so it was a solid year for animation. It also saw one of the biggest surprise of Oscar nomination morning when they called out The Secret of Kells and had everyone scratching their heads. Who has seen this Irish animated adventure film? Well, I've seen the trailer now, and am quite curious to get my hands on it myself sometime soon whenever it gets a decent release. But seriously, there is only one film that should be considered here, and that's Up. The emotional depth, the characters, the humor, the story... all top form from a studio that I honestly didn't think could do better than Wall-E. Pixar amazes yet again, and expect to see them win. Close enough to cause some doubt potentially is Wes Anderson's marvelous stop-motion animation film Fantastic Mr. Fox, it could upset, but that upset would be major. Throw in Coraline, a film I liked for it's look and disliked for it's story, and Disney's triumphant return to 2D animation with the truly charming The Princess and the Frog, and you have a very strong ballot this year. Regardless, my prediction: Up
Art Direction
The Oscars have nominated Avatar, The Young Victoria, Nine, The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus, and Sherlock Holmes. Earlier this year, the Art Directors Guild gave out three awards for different categories: Period went to Sherlock Holmes, Fantasy went to Avatar, and Contemporary went to The Hurt Locker. Only Sherlock and Avatar from that list scored Oscar noms, so I as much as I loved The Young Victoria and think it truly deserves it, the guilds have spoken and my prediction: Avatar
Cinematography
Between the options of Avatar, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, The White Ribbon, and Harry Potter & The Half-Blood Prince, I would have said it would come down to Avatar vs. The Hurt Locker,
but then during the 24th Annual ASC Awards on February 27th, 2010, the cinematographer's guild awarded The White Ribbon, a little seen German film directed by Michael Haneke, featuring sumptuous black and white cinematography by Christian Berger. Expect this film, which also is nominated for best foreign language film, to surprise and win this coveted category over bigger, more prestigious films. Prediction: Christian Berger for The White Ribbon
Costume Design
Their guild awarded The Young Victoria for period, Crazy Heart for contemporary, and The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus for fantasy. Off of that list, only The Young Victoria and The Imaginarium were nominated for Oscars, along with Bright Star, Coco avant Chanel, and Nine. Expect to see Oscar love it's period pieces, and while Bright Star had some of the most beautiful costumes, it's lack of guild support opens the door for one of my favorites to win here, so my Prediction: Sandy Powell for The Young Victoria
Editing
This category is crucial to Best Picture hopefuls. In fact, whoever wins Best Editing will probably go on to win Best Picture. Once again, we have a 3 way race here between the big 3: The Hurt Locker, Avatar, and Inglorious Basterds. District 9 was a pleasant surprise here, and I was kinda shocked to see Precious beat out Up in the Air here too. But since The Hurt Locker is the front runner for Best Picture and it also won the editors guild award, expect to see it stand atop the podium. Prediction: Bob Murawski & Chris Innis for The Hurt Locker
MakeUp
Star Trek, Il Divo, and The Young Victoria battle it out here. I can't find any guild awards to give me any indication of which way this one will swing, but most of the prognosticators are saying Star Trek so get ready to boldly go where no man has gone before. Prediction: Barney Burman, Mindy Hall, Joel Harlow for Star Trek
Original Score
Michael Giacchino has this one pretty locked up for his work on Up. Who didn't cry at the end of that 5 minute musical sequence at the beginning of the film where he musically took us through Carl's entire life? James Horner's score for Avatar was good, but not great, The Hurt Locker scored (pardon the pun) a surprise nomination here, Hans Zimmer did his usual good work on Sherlock Holmes, and Alexandre Desplat had a whimsical turn doing the score for the fantastic film Fantastic Mr. Fox. Expect Giacchino to soar with Up however. Prediction: Michael Giacchino for Up
Original Song
This category had the biggest surprise nomination on nominee morning when Paris 36, which I've actually seen and liked a lot, scored a Best Original Song nominee for "Lion de Paname." As excited as I am to see a really great little gem of a film score a nomination here, it has no chance of winning. No, this category is all about Crazy Heart. Ryan Bingham's rendition of the film's theme song, "The Weary Kind" is the exact kind of song this category was created for. Expect to see it win easy over other competitors. Nine's "Take it All" was a bust, and Disney will split votes on it's two songs nominated from The Princess and the Frog, "Down in New Orleans" and "Almost There." Prediction: "The Weary Kind" from Crazy Heart
Sound Mixing
Nominees are Avatar, Star Trek, The Hurt Locker, Transformers 2: Revenge of the Fallen, and Inglourious Basterds. There's no reason why Avatar doesn't get this one. Prediction: Avatar
Sound Editing
This category is a big tougher, it would seem that Avatar should have it in the bag, but The Hurt Locker had a very good soundtrack that edited the explosions and Marco Beltrami's score together nicely. Expect it to be a very close call. I'm gonna go against my first inclination and make my prediction: The Hurt Locker with Avatar right on it's heels
Visual Effects
As good as Star Trek and District 9 were, there's no stopping Avatar here, in what should be the easiest award to predict of the evening. Prediction: Avatar
Foreign Language Film
I both love and hate this category. Love it because the films are usually awesome, hate it because it's so dang hard to predict accurately. Remember when everyone assumed Pan's Labyrinth had it won, and The Lives of Others won instead? Or how about last year, when everyone was writing it off as a shoe-in for Waltz With Bashir and Japan surprised with Departures? This category is tough because hardly anyone has seen all five of the nominees, and the only people allowed to vote are a small contingent of academy members who have attended the prerequisite screenings of all five. That being said, Michael Haneke's black and white German film about a small WWI-era village, The White Ribbon, won the coveted Palme d'Or at this years 62nd Cannes Film Festival. France's entry, Un Prophete, is being touted as a spoiler, and Argentina's The Seceret of Her Eyes seemed to have some support as well. There are no clear front-runners this year, but I think with it's Best Cinematography nod as well, The White Ribbon is the one to beat. It's also the only one I've actually seen, and while it's incredibly slow, it's a very well crafted film. Other nominees include Peru's The Milk of Sorrow and Israel's Ajami. Prediction: Germany for The White Ribbon
Documentary
This year I've seen 3 of the 5 nominees, and liked them all. The two I haven't seen seem to the best the least likely to win as well, Which Way Home and The Most Dangerous Man in America: Daniel Ellsberg and the Pentagon Papers. Once again, this is a rather difficult category to predict. But since it's won numerous awards from the DGA and Critics Choice, I think The Cove is the one to beat. One of the most thrilling and exciting documentaries I've seen in years, it's actually a very good film about a rather disturbing subject matter that tends to split people depending on where they fall. Expect it to edge out close competition from both Food, Inc., and Burma VJ, all three of which are very much worth viewing. Burma VJ may be my second favorite behind The Cove, but I expect the winner to match the consensus. Prediction: The Cove
Best Documentary Short Subject, Live Action Short Subject, and Animated Short
Ah, the shorts. No one ever sees them and no one stands a chance of predicting them accurately. So here we go, just for the heck of it: Predictions (these are sheer guesses folks): Best Documentary Short Subject: The Last Truck. Live Action Short: The New Tenants or Miracle Fish. Animated Short: A Matter of Loaf and Death.
So there you have it. My best guesses as to who should win what and what to look forward to this weekend when the 82nd Academy Awards air on ABC at 5pm PT/8pm ET this Sunday, March 7th, 2010. Tune in and celebrate the year in cinema, and see how many you can predict before the winners are announced. ;-)
